Page 23 - FoodFocusThailand No.185 August 2021

SPECIAL FOCUS

full dine-in service. Other types of least strict restrictions being adopted first and the strictest ones last, in order to allow
establishments, such as limited-service restaurants some time to prepare themselves for the upcoming changes as they may need
restaurants and street food vendors, enjoy a to adjust their ingredient inventories, prep for alternative points of sales, and communicate
more flexible nature of business management with their target consumers in advance. In the following phase, the government should
and suffer lower impacts in accordance with consider subsidizing the costs of space rentals, public utility expenses, and accessibility to
their respective target customers. liquidity. In addition, the conditions of compensation should be reconsidered to cover a
Even if the circumstances in Bangkok and wider range of entrepreneurs as well as employees.
its peripherals are improved, the 30-day
restrictions are lifted, and the restaurants เอกสารอ้างอิง/Reference
resume their full service, the industry will still Kasikorn Research Center,July 2021
be faced with lingering negative repercussions,
such as the consumer’s limited purchasing
power or fear of virus spread in dine-in spaces,
which will result in the sector’s continuously More Information Service Info C001
stagnated income.
Given the aforementioned issues, the
projection of the food business’ total value in
2021 has been reevaluated, thus yielding two
possibilities. In a positive scenario, should the
government succeed in swiftly checking the
virus spread, all restaurants will be able to
resume their normal operations, life will resume
its course, and domestic tourism will gradually
regain its ground, leading to the eventual
revival of the restaurant industry. In this case,
the sector’s projected value in 2021 may see
a THB 55-billion (13.5%) YoY setback, finally
arriving at the total figure of only THB 350
billion.
On a more negative note, the virus may
continue to run rampant, thus prompting the
restrictions to be prolonged beyond the 30-day
period. The government might relax some
control measures and allow limited numbers
of customers in full-service establishments.
Such prospect will result in a more sluggish
recovery of and medium-term impacts on the
industry. Under such condition, the sector’s
total value is predicted to diminish by THB 70
billion (17.3%) YoY, hitting the final sum of just
THB 335 billion.
In the past two years, in spite of the
restauranteurs’ best adaptation efforts and the
government’s basic relief schemes,
continuously accumulated impacts have
caused great losses to the restaurant sector.
In the current volatile situation of continued
pandemic, the government may need to further
tighten the restrictions, inevitably inducing
more undesirable effects on the sector, which
is structured differently than other types of
business as it is mostly burdened by the costs
of fresh ingredients with limited shelf life
(ingredient costs make up around 25-40% of
the income).
Amidst the pandemic, the government
needs to promptly send a clear message to
entrepreneurs and provide sufficient additional
supports that address different aspects
essential to the survival of the restaurant
industry. Control measures for future periods,
for instance, should be announced well in
advance. Additionally, the measures can be
tiered into different scales of severity, with the
AUG 2021 FOOD FOCUS THAILAND 23

22/7/2564 BE 09:29
20-23_1_Special Focus_food catering.indd 23 22/7/2564 BE 09:29
20-23_1_Special Focus_food catering.indd 23